Polymarket: How Prediction Markets Moved From Crypto Experiment to Financial Signal
Polymarket is a prediction market where people bet on future events — from sports outcomes to elections to whether a show gets renewed. You buy shares representing yes or no, the price reflects the market’s belief about probability, and if you’re right, your shares become worth one dollar. Built on the Polygon blockchain, Polymarket has grown from a niche crypto experiment into a platform processing billions of dollars in monthly volume, now watched closely by traditional finance.
We’re writing this because in the past six months, everything changed. A $400,000 bet on Venezuelan politics and a reported $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange made Polymarket impossible to ignore. It crossed the line from “interesting blockchain app” into something institutions actively monitor. To understand why, we need to look at how it actually works.
How Polymarket Actually Works
Each market answers a simple yes-or-no question:
Will the Fed cut rates?
Will a sports team win?
Will a blockchain launch on schedule?
Will a TV show get renewed?
Users deposit USDC on Polygon, select a market, and buy shares for the outcome they believe will occur. Share prices range from $0.01 to $1.00, directly representing probability. Buying at $0.70 implies the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome.
On the technical side, Polymarket uses a central limit order book (CLOB). Orders are matched off-chain for speed and settled on-chain via Polygon smart contracts. For users, the experience is simple: orders execute nearly instantly, positions live on-chain, and exiting a trade is as easy as placing a sell order. Polygon’s low fees keep transaction costs negligible, which is critical for smaller traders.
One UI detail often misunderstood: placing a limit order to buy YES at $0.70 automatically displays a corresponding NO price at $0.30. These are complementary outcomes — two sides of the same probability distribution.
Prediction Markets, Explained
Prediction markets aren’t new. Platforms like PredictIt, Intrade, and the Iowa Electronic Markets existed long before Polymarket. What Polymarket changed was distribution and execution.
By building on public blockchain infrastructure, Polymarket removed geographic banking barriers, replaced fiat rails with stablecoins, and launched during a period of regulatory uncertainty when traditional venues hesitated to expand. The innovation wasn’t the concept — it was timing, infrastructure choice, and scale.
In October 2025, Polymarket reached $3.02 billion in monthly volume with nearly 480,000 active traders. By early 2026, major event volumes were running even higher, though full monthly data hasn’t yet been published. The 2024 US presidential election alone saw over $3.3 billion wagered on a single outcome.
The user base is broad: crypto-native traders, sports bettors looking for alternative odds, institutional analysts extracting crowd-based signals, and entertainment fans speculating on media outcomes. Polymarket doesn’t distinguish between them — the mechanism is the same.
Is Polymarket Available in Your Country?
Polymarket operates globally, with a list of restricted jurisdictions based on sanctions, gambling laws, and regulatory requirements. The official and regularly updated list is available through Polymarket’s documentation.
If your jurisdiction permits access, onboarding is straightforward: deposit USDC via Coinbase, MoonPay, or any Polygon-supported exchange and start trading. The entire process typically takes about fifteen minutes.
While geofencing exists, demand from restricted regions persists. Participation patterns suggest prediction markets fill a gap that regulation struggles to fully suppress.
Polymarket and Sports Betting
Sports drive the largest share of volume. UFC fights, NFL games, boxing, hockey, darts — all see deep liquidity. But politics, macroeconomic decisions, weather events, blockchain launches, and entertainment outcomes attract comparable attention.
Traditional sports betting in the US is regulated state by state. Prediction markets occupy a different legal category, which created space for Polymarket to grow. In some regions where sportsbooks are restricted, prediction markets remain accessible, creating real arbitrage opportunities that fuel volume.
Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Kalshi and Polymarket chose different regulatory strategies. Kalshi pursued early CFTC approval and positioned itself as compliance-first, curating markets more tightly. Its founder has argued successfully that event contracts should be classified separately from gambling.
Polymarket expanded globally through crypto infrastructure, allowing anyone to create markets. This makes it more chaotic, but also far more liquid. Polymarket dominated the 2024 election cycle, while Kalshi set records in late 2025. Both platforms now show comparable depth on major events.
For users, the choice depends on jurisdictional access and interface preference rather than a clear technical advantage.
What We’re Actually Watching
The key shift isn’t volume — it’s legitimacy. Prediction markets are now treated as information infrastructure. Financial institutions, analysts, and media organizations reference their probabilities as real-time signals.
Regulation remains fragmented. France banned prediction markets outright. The US is experimenting with regulated integration. Romania classified them as gambling. This divergence is likely to persist.
Competition will intensify. Polymarket leads globally, but delayed US rollout left room for Kalshi, while companies like DraftKings and Robinhood are launching their own prediction products. The market won’t converge to a single winner — it will fragment by jurisdiction and use case.
What Actually Matters Long-Term
Polymarket matters because it tests whether decentralized forecasting systems can function at scale and influence real decision-making. That’s the real experiment.
Regulation will slow adoption in some regions and accelerate it in others. Platforms will specialize. Demand will persist regardless. Prediction markets won’t replace traditional finance — but they’re becoming a permanent layer alongside it.
We’re not recommending participation or offering guidance on how to profit. If your prediction is wrong, your shares become worthless. Regulatory access changes by jurisdiction. Participate only if you fully understand the risks.